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Forex News: Aussie Climbs On Chinese Manufacturing Data

Australia’s dollar advanced from a three-week low. This was influenced by the data revealing the unexpected improvement in the Chinese manufacturing this year. China is the biggest trading partner of Australia.

In a preliminary reading by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics on the Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, the gauge reading came at 49.7 in May 2014, which was the strongest since December 2013. While the median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg News predicted a level of 48.3.

The Aussie moved up by 0.2 % to 92.66 U.S. cents while earlier it weakened as much as 0.3 %. The Australian dollar hit the level of 92.09 U.S. cents on May 21,2014, the lowest since May 2,2014.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks advanced by 1.1 %, driven by a 0.8 % rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. (SPX) U.S. Treasury 10-year note yields gained by 0.02 percentage points to climb up to 2.55 %.

Aussie Struggles On RBA Statement

Australia’s dollar slumped following the central bank’s signal of keeping low interest rates
The Aussie hit a two-week low followed by the Reserve Bank’s statement of protracted spare capacity in labor markets during the hours of the May meeting.

The euro remained in the vicinity of a three-month minimum against the yen before European Central Bank authorities address at a conference in Frankfurt. This was followed by the presumption that they might relieve monetary policy in the upcoming month. Later in the day, the Bank of Japan commences a two-day meeting. The Thai baht declined the most in two months after the military enforced martial law.

Australian dollar declined by 0.5 %, coming to the level of 92.88 U.S. cents during the London session. It touched the level of 92.85 the lowest since May 6, before consolidating.The euro was hardly affected and traded at 139 .13 against the Japanese currency compared to May 19. The euro hit the level of 138.62, the lowest considering the level since 7th Feb 2014.

While against the dollar, the euro traded at $1.3707 from $1.3709 in New York. The dollar bought 101.49 yen against the Japanese currency from the level of 101.50 on 19th May, when it attained the level of 101.10.

Malaysia’s Ringgit Gain On Record Economic Growth

Malaysia’s Ringgit advances supported by the benchmark stock index that is steering towards a record close. This was fueled by after the Malaysian economic growth and current-account surplus that broke the lower expectations.

In the first quarter, the GDP advanced by 6.2 % compared to that of the previous year, while the economist’s estimated were only at 5.7 %. The data also revealed that there are expectations that in order to temper this quickest inflation in almost three years, the central bank might elevate the borrowing costs for the first time since 2011.

The Ringgit advanced by 0.5 % to 3.2170 against the dollar at the time of 10:53 a.m. in Kuala Lumpur. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (FBMKLCI) of shares moved up by 0.2 % to 1,887.13.

China Stocks Edgy With Anticipated IPOs

Investors booking profits after the recent rally has led the Hong Kong shares divest the early gains on May 16.however, the benchmark index may still give its best week in more than eight months.China stocks moved down marginally as investors were nervous on the expected restart of initial public offerings (IPOs) and the likelihood of a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

The Hang Seng Index was down 0.7 % at 22,583.79 points, which was well above the 3.3 % level for the week.The China Enterprises Index of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong slumped down by 0.7 %, while it was 2.2 % up for the week.

The Shanghai Composite Index moved down by 0.3 %, while it was up by 0.4 % for the week.
Analysts predict that the substantial correction in New York overnight led to the narrow declines in Hong Kong.

Forex News: EUR/USD - Fundamentals & Technicals

The EUR/USD declined by 0.01% at 6:43 GMT on May 15 and traded at 1.3713 and at 6:31 GMT, the pair hit a daily low at 1.3707.

Fundamental view:

The preliminary annualized GDP of the Euro zone probably advanced by 0.4% during the first quarter. This was followed by a 0.2% gain in the previous quarter. In the event of a better-than-expected rise in the region’s economy, the euro will receive support.
The final annualized reading of the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in the Euro zone, perhaps increased by 0.7 % in April.

At 09:00 GMT, the Eurostat is expected to release the official report. Any weaker-than-expected reading may make the ECB to ease monetary policy at their next meeting in June. The ECB may ease the policy to avoid risks of deflation. On the other side,if the data comes out better-than-expected, it will probably dismiss the pressure on central bank’s officials and prevent them from taking imminent actions.

According to the median analyst’ estimate, The cost of living in the US probably increased 2.0% in April compared to the same month a year ago. According to the median forecast by experts, the core CPI moved up by 1.7% in April compared to the previous year,.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release its report at 12:30 GMT in Washington. Any better-than-expected result will certainly influence greenback’s demand. Moreover, the initial jobless claims in the US moved up to 320 000 in the week ended May 10th, compared to that of 319 000 the previous week. In case the initial jobless claims declines more than expected in the data that is expected to be released at 12:30 GMT, it will bring the positive sentiment for the greenback.

Technical view

In the event that EUR/USD figures out to breach the first resistance level at 1.3733, it will most likely proceed up to test 1.3749. On the off chance that the second key resistance is broken, the pair will likely endeavor to move to 1.3766.

In the event that EUR/USD figures out to breach the first key support at 1.3700, it will most likely keep on sliding and test 1.3683. With this second key support broken, the development to the downside will presumably proceed to 1.3667.

Forex outlook: USD/CAD - Fundamental & Technical

Throughout yesterday's trading session, the USD/CAD traded inside the extent of 1.0888 to 1.0926 and consolidated in 1.0906.
On May 14, at 11:54 GMT, the USD/CAD slipped by 0.04% for the day to trade at 1.0900. The pair hit a daily low at 1.0894 at 10:58 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States' annualized record of Poducer Price (PPI) most likely hopped by 1.7% in April, as indicated by the average gauge by experts, after including 1.4% in March.

Country's annualized core PPI, which bars costs of volatile categories, for example, food and energy, presumably stayed steady at 1.4% in April. This indicator is very sensitive to changes in demand. Therefore, it could be utilized as a heading marker for the economy. In any case, due to its controlled extension, it is not suitable for future inflation forecasts.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is projected to distribute the official PPI readings at 12:30 GMT. Higher-than-anticipated readings might help positive sentiment for greenback.

Technical view

On the off chance that USD/CAD figures out to break the first resistance level at 1.0925, it will presumably proceed up to test 1.0945. In the event that the second key resistance is broken, the pair will presumably endeavor to move up to 1.0963.
On the off chance that USD/CAD figures out to breach the first key support at 1.0887, it will presumably keep on sliding and test 1.0869. With this second key support broken, the development to the downside will presumably proceed to 1.0849.

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Forex Outlook: Technical & Fundamental View On USD/MXN

  

USD/MXN traded within the range of 12.9393 to 13.0062 before consolidating at 12.9468 on May 9.
On May 12, at 9:51 GMT, USD/MXN fell down by 0.01% to trade at 12.9460. The pair hit a bottom of a daily low at 12.9424 at 9:42 GMT.

Fundamental view

As per the median forecast by experts, Mexico’s annualized industrial production advanced by 3.7% in April. This was followed by a 0.7% increase in March. The industrial production also advanced by 0.3% last month compared to the previous month. The index indicates the change in the overall inflation-adjusted value of output in sectors like manufacturing, mining and utilities. If the output advanced to a better than expected level, the positive impact will bring a bullish effect on the Mexican peso.

Technical view

If USD/MXN succeeds to breach 12.9884, the first resistance level, it will possibly move up to test 13.0310. If the second key resistance is broken, the pair will possibly strive to move up to 13.0558.
In another case, if USD/MXN heads towards 12.9223 to breach the first key support, it will possibly slide down and test the level of 12.8972. The movement towards the downside will possibly pursue to 12.8551 if the second key support is broken.

Forex Market News - Trading Session Of AUD/JPY Trading Forecast

During the trading session AUD/JPY traded within the range of 95.03-95.39 and closed at 95.36, gaining 0.18% for the day and 0.62% for the week.

Fundamental view

Australia

The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence index probably rose to +7 last month, according to the median analysts’ projection. In March, the index stood at +4.

Japan

The Japanese Current Account surplus probably narrowed to 0.305 trillion yen in March, according to the median analysts’ estimate. In February the nation’s current account surplus stood at 0.613 trillion yen.

Technical Chart:

 AUD/JPY manages to breach the first resistance level at 95.49, it will probably continue up to test 95.62. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 95.85.

If AUD/JPY manages to breach the first key support at 93.45, it will probably continue to slide and test 93.12. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 92.87.

Forex Outlook: Upbeat Asian Currencies, Philippines Peso Leads

Asian currencies are directed for their largest weekly gain from the period of March. More positive results in the Asian region like the Philippines earning an amazing credit-rating upgrade and Malaysia’s ringgit gaining on the expectation of an increase in interest-rate influences the positive sentiment.
 

The Standard & Poor’s elevated the Philippines debt rating to BBB on May 8, augmenting the peso, the Philippines currency, to a five-month high. In the Asian region, reports revealed that China, world’s second largest economy, broadened its trade surplus in April. The Chinese yuan moved up by 0.48 % this week trading at 6.2297 versus the dollar.

Thailand’s baht was poised for a third weekly decline of 0.5 % this week to 32.575 per dollar.
The Taiwan’s dollar climbed up for its second weekly advance on expectations of upbeat export data.  The currency moved up by 0.4 % this week to NT$30.097 against its U.S. counterpart.
 

The Philippines’ peso climbed up by 0.7 % to 43.868 per dollar, making a weekly advance of 1.4 %. Malaysia’s ringgit moved up by 1.1 % this week to 3.2287 and South Korea’s won rose by 0.8 percent to 1,022.40.

In the other regions of Asia, India’s rupee advanced by 0.1 % this week to 60.085 against the dollar. Indonesia’s rupiah slipped down by 0.2 % to 11,545 and the Vietnam’s dong slumped down by 0.1 % to 21,105.

Forex Outlook: Easing Ukranian Crisis, Yen Slips Down

Putin had made a statement that he was drawing out the Russian troops from the Ukrainian border bringing a halt to the mounting Ukraine crisis. With five days to go before the vote on secession, Putin called on pro-Moscow separatists in Ukraine to postpone it.

In an immediate response, the Dollar-denominated Russian shares advanced to a five-week high, with a sigh of relief for the investors.While against the yen, the dollar bought 101.83 yen with a 0.2 % advance to 101.90 on May 7.

With the Ukraine sentiment easing a bit, the safe haven consideration declined, making the yen moved down to trade at 101.82 yen against the dollar. The yen slipped from its three-week high of 101.43 yen versus the dollar on May 7.

The euro stayed flat against the dollar at $1.3913, hovering near the level of the May 6th at $1.3952. Data from analysts in a News survey predict that ECB policy makers shall hold a record-low 0.25 percent rate target.

Forex outlook: Nomra’s Report On China’s Property Burst

Predictions were made by the economists at Nomura about the imminent burst in the China’s property. Further, they predict that the economy could slump down dramatically unless any positive effort through new stimulus measures is taken by Beijing.

A report by bank’s analysts state that the correction in the property market is imminent, and they are convinced that property sector has passed a turning point. Skeptics reveal the real estate sector is characteristic of complications such as hasty credit expansion and policies that stimulate short term growth over a more balanced economy. The building rush gives a better understanding that the property supply overpowers the demand in some parts of the country.

These warnings of a collapse in the property sector had been provided earlier by analysts at the Japan-based broker. Data supporting the bubble burst show that the number of new homes under construction has fallen by 25%,. Moreover, the number of property sales has also dropped radically. 

In addition to that the prices are waning away, particularly in the small and medium cities
If the predictions in the property market slumps down as projected by Nomura, then this will have a more impact on the China's trading partners. In particular, the exporters supplying the raw materials and equipment for construction will have a high impact.

Forex Outlook: A snap View On Forex And Commodity

The currency markets remained subdued with holidays in London and Tokyo, which weakened  the liquidity. The dollar index remained little changed at 79.501, after floating between the range of 79.433 and 79.527 on 5th May 2014.

Against the dollar, the euro moved between $1.3864-$1.3887 range before consolidating at $1.3875, having hugged a tight $1.3864-$1.3887 range. Against the yen, the dollar kept steady at the level of 102.15. The euro was at 141.71 against the yen

The Australian dollar was at 0.9278 against the U.S. dollar and was holding above support at 0.9250. In the commodities sector, the yellow metal, gold was strong at $1,310.71 per ounce, making it a three-week high. The positive sentiment for the metal was derived partly due to the smoldering tensions in Ukraine as gold was considered to be a safe haven among investors.

Another commodity on major focus is the crude oil. The oil prices prolonged their recent decline with the Brent crude for June delivery moving down by 8 cents at $107.64 per barrel. The U.S. crude relieved by 2 cents to stay at $99.46 per barrel.

Forex Market: An Overview Of The Indonesian Economy

Indonesia's economy expanded at a much sluggish pace than expected in the first quarter. This was, in fact, due to the dwindling investments and exports as reported by the statistics bureau on May5. The GDP in the January to March quarter raised by 5.21 % from a year earlier. During the fourth quarter last year, the GDP was at 5.72 %. A recent Reuters poll predicted a GDP level of 5.60 %.

 The Indonesian economy rose up by 0.95 % on a quarterly basis. The economy has been supported by optimistic domestic demand and a strong uptrend in the consumption from the rising middle class.

Indonesia reported a tapered $670 million trade surplus in March on May 2. Owing to a meek decline in imports, while exports squeezed the growth of 1.24 % against a fall the previous month. The annual inflation rate in April lessened further to 7.25 %, as the food prices lowered with the onset of the harvest season.

Forex Outlook: Global Overview Of Forex Market

The U.S dollar stayed almost flat against the yen at 102.35, while against the euro it traded at 1.3859. The euro traded at 141.86 against the yen. The upbeat U.S. consumer spending in March followed by the uptrend manufacturing in April predicts an upbeat U.S economy in the second quarter.

This week, a few of the 31 major currency counterparts of the greenback moved up, including South Africa’s rand and Hungary’s forint moving up by more than 1.3%. 

The euro moved up against the dollar by 0.2%, while the yen lost against the dollar by 0.2%. In another part of the world, Indonesia’s rupiah surged up by 0.2 % to 11,536 per dollar, making a first weekly advance in a month. Data depicts a slowdown in inflation in April and an increase in exports compared to the imports.

The purchasing managers’ index (COMFCOMF) revealed a lower China’s manufacturing data than the expected estimation of analysts. According to data from Mark it Economics in London, the manufacturing sector in U.K gains momentum. The U.K manufacturing sector advanced more than the expected level of economists making an eight month high.

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Forex News: The Asian Stock Market Slumps Down

The Bank of Japan held its policy steady as predicted. This has brought the upsurge in the Tokyo stocks followed by the strength in yen on 30th April 2014 . Japan's Nikkei stock average wiped out the gains attained in the early trade and slid down by 0.1 %. The BOJ board’s decision to hang on to the steady monetary policy fueled the change.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan moved down by 0.3 %, wiping away the initial gains. However, it is on a monthly rise of above 1 %. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped down by 1.2 % after investors started reaping the gains attained from the late-afternoon sprint on 29th April 2014 . Hang Seng index moved up by 1 % during the final hour of the trade on 29th April 2014.

Forex News: Positive Sentiments On Forex Euro Trading

On April 29, the euro moved up against the dollar. The EUR/USD moved up by 0.11% to 1.3865, very much nearing to the level of 1.3878 hit on April 28. Speculations are on for a support of 1.3820 and a resistance level of 1.3895.

The euro is supported by speculation on the positive consumer price data in the preliminary euro zone inflation report that will be released on April 30. The annual rate of inflation in the euro zone slackened by 0.5% during March, which is the lowest since November 2009. The ECB aims at a below than 2% inflation rate while expecting a near closer level.

Against the yen, the euro moved up by 0.19% to 142.20. The dollar stayed flat against the yen, making a little move up to 102.54 from 102.48 on April 28. With the Japanese market remaining closed on April 29, the trade volumes continued to stay thin.

Forex News: Little Movement In Yen And Aussie

The yen and Aussie are showing some movement worth to watch in the Monday Tokyo open. Both currencies failed to make a much more advance on account of slow activity.After hitting a session high of 0.9292, the AUD/USD consolidated at around 0.9280. Further support was withdrawn due to the late decline in iron ore prices up to almost 5%.

In the Asian session, the USD/JPY opened in a small range. At 5:35 GMT, the USD/JPY pair traded at 102.04, while hitting a session high of 102.23. Both Euro and Pound traded with no large movements in the Asia session. The New Zealand Kiwi traded unbiased and stayed neutral at 0.8575.

Some of the main headlines happening in Asia that will influence the market are the sharp fall in the iron ore prices of almost 5%. The expectations of the Japan Retail Trade on a YoY basis predicting a 11% in March. The International Monetary Fund predicts a growth of 7.5% in the Chinese economy in the year of 2014 and 7.3% in the year of 2015.

Forex News: A brief Outline On Draghi’s Speech

   
The euro fell down against the greenback after the comments by the ECB’s President Mario Draghi. He suggested that the ECB may cut rates, extend fixed-rate allotment, or inject more liquidity. The European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi in a speech in Amsterdam on April 25th stated that the Euro foreign exchange rate is increasingly important for policy and that the rising euro echoes the arrival of confidence.

 In his statement, he said that even though the exchange rate is not targeted for policy making, a rise in the exchange rate with all else being equal denotes a monetary tightening that will have a downward impact on inflation and potentially a threat to the ongoing recovery.

Euro Foreign Exchange Rate: 

Draghi said that although inflation will linger at low level for an extended period, it is expected to slowly mount back to 2 %. The delay is mainly attributed to the damages in the transmission mechanism that lengthen the lag between the accommodative policy stance and price developments.

The ECB has been fighting against the low-inflation and the slow-rise higher in the euro that has augmented the expectation for ECB stimulus. This will evaluate on the euro erstwhile in the future.

EURUSD Daily Chart Chart from EUR/USD Technical Analysis

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Forex Outlook: NZD/CAD Weakens On Canadian Retail Sales

NZD/CAD traded at 0.9484 with a decrease of 0.02% at 9:28 GMT on April 23. At 7:10 GMT, the pair hit its daily low level at 0.9475. On April 22, the NZD/CAD traded to close at 0.9498. Estimates from median analyst reveal that in February, the retail sales increased by 0.5% in Canada. The retail sales in January were at 1.3% increase.

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Forex Outlook: A close Watch On The Euro VS US Dollar

 EUR/USD traded at a level of 1.3787 to 1.3830 before consolidating at 1.3792 at the end of the trading session on 21th April . On 22th April , 7:16 GMT, the EUR/USD traded at 1.3801, a 0.06% increase for the day.

Euro zone

As per the median estimate by experts, the euro zone consumer confidence increased to -9.2 in April from that of -9.3 in March 2014.

The preliminary data on consumer confidence will be provided by the European Commission two weeks before the final evaluation and is expected to release the official data at 14:00 GMT on April 22. The euro will see better support if the reading turns out to be higher than expected.

United States

In the United States, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will report on existing home sales in March at 14:00 GMT on April 22. The index of existing home sales slid down by 0.4% to a level of 4.6 million in February when compared to January.

Since the months of March through June are considered to be the active house-purchasing period in the United States, a close watch on the statistical data will provide a signal of weakness or strength in the US housing market.

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EUR/USD Moves Top On Weak US Housing Data

The euro moved up against the greenback breaking away its three day’s decline. Investors speculated a slowdown in the momentum of the US housing sector followed by a lower than expected US housing data. Nevertheless, the euro felt pressure against weaker inflation, adding stress on the ECB to prevent deflation.

EUR/USD moved up to 1.3851 at 08:55 GMT and later stabilized at 1.3834, making an increase of 0.14% for the day. Speculations are on for a support level of 1.3791 and a resistance of 1.3863. In the US, the housing moved up by 0.946 million units in March, which was lower than the expected level of 0.975 million. Moreover, the data showed 0.99 million building permits in March, which was below the expected levels of 1.015 million permits. It should be noted that it was 1.014 million in February.

While in the euro zone, the final inflation rate remained unchanged from the preliminary reading of March 31st, but the core inflation increased to a less than expected level.The ECB will decide on easing the monetary policy further, to bring back price stability and has expressed their willingness to consider new policy measures if required.

Forex News: Upbeat Data On UK Unemployment

Forex News

Reports from UK reveal an improvement in the employment with the unemployment rate of 6.9%, lower than the expected 7.1%. The UK Average Earnings figures have increased which depicts the strength of the employment. 

In March, the Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses increased by 1.4%, up from the level of 1.2% in February. The fall in unemployment signifies the strengthening of the British economy. The Bank of England has informed that it will not focus on unemployment as an objective for making its monetary policy decisions.

 However, Bank of England will not ignore it, if the rate of improvement in the employment situation continues at the pace demonstrated on 16th April 2014. There is also a consensus that the growth is confined to the Southeast area surrounding London, an uneven jobs recovery due to the weaker areas of the remaining part of UK.

The Loonie Gains Before BOC Rate conclusion

The Canadian dollar strengthened on 14th April  with the investors sentiment expecting the rate decision by the Bank of Canada on 16th April 2014.

The positive US retail sales data helped sentiments on the Canadian dollar. Moreover, the stronger data revealing an increase of 1.1% in the US retail revenues in March predicts a better sign for the U.S. economy, which in turn brings a good indication for Canadian exporters.

The Loonie moved up by 13 pips to 0.9124 against the greenback. With the latest data revealing more than expected results on gross domestic product, trade and employment, the Canadian dollar has moved up more than 1.3 % over the last 4 weeks. Investors look forward to the report by Statistics Canada on the consumer price inflation on 17th April.

Expectations about the unchanged benchmark lending rate of 1% by the Bank of Canada remains high. However, the statement about future policy, and upbeat Canadian economy by the policy makers will be closely watched. As per the revised estimates of the International Monetary Fund, the Canadian economy is expected to raise 2.3 % this year 2014.

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US Dollar Weak While Korean Won Climbs

The US dollar held steady at $1.3791 against the euro, after the slip down of 0.4 % on 8th April 2014. Against the yen, the greenback rose 0.1 % to 101.94 following a decrease of 1.3 %. Masato Yanagiya, the head of foreign exchange and money trading in New York at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., a unit of Japan’s second-biggest financial group by market value in a statement mentioned that the dollar is expected to bottom out and the sentiment remains bullish on the U.S. economy.

At the March 18-19 meeting, the U.S. central bank trimmed its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $55 billion. Further, Fed Chair Janet Yellen mentioned the possibility of increase in rate by the central bank.

Investors speculate on today’s release of the reports by the Federal Reserve about the March meeting. The demand for the US dollar was buoyed as the investors consider the time at which hike in the rates will be initiated by the U.S. central bank.

With little change in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, the U.S. currency against its 10 major counterparts, the reading was at 1,008.85. The greenback came down 1.1 % on 8th April three sessions to the lowest level of Oct. 30 at 1,008.53.With the increase of 1 % against the greenback, the won moved up to 1,042.35 after moving to a high of 1,040.46, the maximum since August 2008.

Son Eun Jeong, a Seoul-based foreign-exchange analyst at Woori Futures Co gave a statement that the globally weak dollar and the Korean government refraining from statements about currency appreciation has provided the support for won.

While the Bank of Korea will let the market set exchange rates “in principle,” it will act against temporary, excessive or one-way bets, Governor Lee Ju Yeol said in a prepared response ahead of a parliamentary hearing last month.

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Bank Of England Shake - Foreign Exchange Markets

The Bank of England is considering whether to shake up the foreign exchange team that it maintains for traders and Forex traders at a time when universal probe is ongoing over probable foreign exchange management in the currency markets.

The committee, which is identified as London Foreign Exchange Combined Standing Committee, was established in 1973 and assembles every 2 months. It is mostly composed of senior staff from the main currency-dealing lenders, and representatives from industry associations and BOE.

In latest months, numerous members of the committee’s subgroup, called Chief Dealers’ Subgroup, have either been terminated  as the universal probe into potential benchmark fixing extends.

A source privy to the matter expressed Wall Street Journal that the Bank of England is considering whether to change the arrangement of the FXJSC to incorporate more members from asset management division, which is a main client of banks  foreign exchange services.

Forex Outlook Signal Of EUR/USD Trend Analysis

On its regular Technical Outlook time frame, EUR/USD performs to be testing a resistance turned support zone between the 1.3800 and 1.3700 important technical stages. Trend analysis expressions that this can hold for currently, as the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo pointer is screening a market uptrend.

EUR/USD strength is on track to check its previous highs near the 1.4000 main psychological resistance levels. Take note though that the green line outlooks complete to cross under the price, which is an initial sell signal. So far this hasn't been established by the blue line yet, but the red line also seems to be specifying an end of the uptrend.

By using the Fibonacci retracement tool displays that the pair is stalling around the 50% level, which could hold as support. The next support stages are placed around the orange lines, which are at the 1.3600 to 1.3700 areas.

Annual Check Of New Zealand Economy Dollar Level

The New Zealand dollar is overvalued by between 5% to 15% the International Monetary Fund reckons, but it counsels caution in altering the Reserve Bank Act in the hope of addressing that. Let’s the  terms of trade at a 40-year high the dollar is stronger than would be reliable with stabilizing the country's net foreign obligations over the long track, it said, and on that basis the kiwi looked to be overvalued.

The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, Brian Aitken, placed the overvaluation between 5% to 15%, a variety that reflected the uncertainty complicated in quantifying such things.

 In addition to the strong terms of trade, features contributing to the dollar's strength are the gap between New Zealand and foreign interest rates, the country's favorable evolution outlook and an appetite for what are seen as moderately safe assets.

Commodities Trading Outlook On Copper ,Gold, Silver Futures

 Current trading outlook of  the demand for copper slowing down in lieu to the slump in the economy of the world’s largest consumer, there was some downside on the copper futures seen on 31th March 2014. Adding to the decline was the gold futures, which saw its drop for its first month this year. Interestingly, Silver moved up to the levels of its earliest monthly drop during the start of the year.

Copper futures for settlement in May declined on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange sliding down by 0.46% and was seen trading at 3.028 US dollars per pound.

Helen Lau, a commodity analyst at UOB Kay Hian Ltd. in Hong Kong, stated “Copper has more downside risks,” as cited by Bloomberg. She further expressed her views stating “The slowdown in China will continue with a crash unlikely, which will mean government stimulus will be limited”.
With the staggering economic growth in China, the world’s largest consumer of copper, speculations are on for a drop in prices through June.

The global surplus of copper is estimated by metals researcher CRU to reach a whopping 140 000 tons in 2014. In addition to that the decline in consumption by China will leave a big gap in demand and supply.

New Zealand Dollar Still On Speculations - RBA Review

The New Zealand dollar remained steady with little alteration. Speculations are on the policy review by Reserve Bank of Australia tomorrow and on the US employment data which shall come in later this week.

The focus remains on the speech by the Governor of RBA, Glenn Stevens on the Australian dollar. Further, it is expected that the RBA will retain the target cash rate at 2.5 % after the analysis of the monetary policy tomorrow. 

The kiwi dollar remains the favorite among traders with the currency speculating a 5% gain over the greenback. Backed with the country’s robust economy and the increased interest rates by Reserve Bank, New Zealand Dollar will show some high this week. Adding to the positive business confidence are the economic figures showing better business and employment confidence together with the growth in new housing with more building permits by the government.

Euro Falls To Three-Week Lows As Yen Is Upbeat

Heeding to the data of lowest unemployment rate in six years, the markets showed a strongest upside for yen in more than three weeks against the euro. With speculations of additional monetary stimulus by the ECB, the demand of euro experienced more pressure.

Further sentiment that added fuel to the strength of the yen is the government report on the Japanese job market in which jobless rate declined to 3.6% last month, the lowest in more than six years.The EUR/JPY pair was seen at a session low of 139.97 at 08:16 GMT. Later, it stabilized at 140.15, sliding down 0.2% for the day.

Euro Low After ECB Comments On Monetary Easing

The Euro stayed near its recent lows against the dollar on 27th March 2014 induced by the comments from European Central Bank about reviving the speculation about further monetary easing to avoid potential deflation.

The Euro held its level at $1.3784, lingering dangerously near a low of $1.3749, a level at which the currency will trade at one of its lowest level since 6th March 2014. Against the pound, the Euro slid down to its 2 week low in early trade, descending to 0.8311 pound.

The Euro hit  3 week low of 140.28 against the yen on the trading platform EBS. This level was last seen before this month's ECB policy meeting. In the late U.S. trade on 26th  March, the Euro was seen trading down 0.2% at 140.40 yen.
 
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The Royal Swiss Bank Suspends Traders For Alleged Rigging

In an unprecedented event, UBS AG suspended foreign-exchange traders for alleged rigging of currency markets. Including Onur Sert, an emerging spot trader based in New York, three others worldwide were suspended. However, Sert and Dominik von Arx, a spokesman for UBS in London, declined to comment on the suspensions.

The report from Bloomberg News in June stating that traders conspired to manipulate the WM/Reuters rates has prompted the Switzerland’s largest bank review its currency operations last year. 

Regulators are still investigating on the communications between the traders and dealers for any evidence of unscrupulous exploitation.

While at least two dozen traders have been suspended by banks including Citigroup Inc., Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Barclays Plc there is no confirmation of accusations on any firms or traders by government authorities.

USD/CAD Forex Off Lows Vs U.S. Durables Statistics

The U.S. dollar clipped losses against the Canadian dollar on 25th March 2014 pulling back from session lows later official data presented those U.S. orders for extended lasting manufactured goods originated in higher than forecast in February 2014.

USD/CAD drawn away from 1week lows of 1.1124, to trade at 1.1161, unmoved for the day. The pair was likely to find provision at 1.100 and resistance at 1.1209, Tuesday’s high. The loonies was sophisticated against the euro, with EUR/CAD down 0.26% to 1.5396.

U.S. dollar previous in the session as conjecture that China could implement new economic incentive actions boosted risk appetite.