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Forex News: Aussie Climbs On Chinese Manufacturing Data

Australia’s dollar advanced from a three-week low. This was influenced by the data revealing the unexpected improvement in the Chinese manufacturing this year. China is the biggest trading partner of Australia.

In a preliminary reading by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics on the Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, the gauge reading came at 49.7 in May 2014, which was the strongest since December 2013. While the median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg News predicted a level of 48.3.

The Aussie moved up by 0.2 % to 92.66 U.S. cents while earlier it weakened as much as 0.3 %. The Australian dollar hit the level of 92.09 U.S. cents on May 21,2014, the lowest since May 2,2014.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks advanced by 1.1 %, driven by a 0.8 % rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. (SPX) U.S. Treasury 10-year note yields gained by 0.02 percentage points to climb up to 2.55 %.

Aussie Struggles On RBA Statement

Australia’s dollar slumped following the central bank’s signal of keeping low interest rates
The Aussie hit a two-week low followed by the Reserve Bank’s statement of protracted spare capacity in labor markets during the hours of the May meeting.

The euro remained in the vicinity of a three-month minimum against the yen before European Central Bank authorities address at a conference in Frankfurt. This was followed by the presumption that they might relieve monetary policy in the upcoming month. Later in the day, the Bank of Japan commences a two-day meeting. The Thai baht declined the most in two months after the military enforced martial law.

Australian dollar declined by 0.5 %, coming to the level of 92.88 U.S. cents during the London session. It touched the level of 92.85 the lowest since May 6, before consolidating.The euro was hardly affected and traded at 139 .13 against the Japanese currency compared to May 19. The euro hit the level of 138.62, the lowest considering the level since 7th Feb 2014.

While against the dollar, the euro traded at $1.3707 from $1.3709 in New York. The dollar bought 101.49 yen against the Japanese currency from the level of 101.50 on 19th May, when it attained the level of 101.10.

Malaysia’s Ringgit Gain On Record Economic Growth

Malaysia’s Ringgit advances supported by the benchmark stock index that is steering towards a record close. This was fueled by after the Malaysian economic growth and current-account surplus that broke the lower expectations.

In the first quarter, the GDP advanced by 6.2 % compared to that of the previous year, while the economist’s estimated were only at 5.7 %. The data also revealed that there are expectations that in order to temper this quickest inflation in almost three years, the central bank might elevate the borrowing costs for the first time since 2011.

The Ringgit advanced by 0.5 % to 3.2170 against the dollar at the time of 10:53 a.m. in Kuala Lumpur. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (FBMKLCI) of shares moved up by 0.2 % to 1,887.13.

China Stocks Edgy With Anticipated IPOs

Investors booking profits after the recent rally has led the Hong Kong shares divest the early gains on May 16.however, the benchmark index may still give its best week in more than eight months.China stocks moved down marginally as investors were nervous on the expected restart of initial public offerings (IPOs) and the likelihood of a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

The Hang Seng Index was down 0.7 % at 22,583.79 points, which was well above the 3.3 % level for the week.The China Enterprises Index of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong slumped down by 0.7 %, while it was 2.2 % up for the week.

The Shanghai Composite Index moved down by 0.3 %, while it was up by 0.4 % for the week.
Analysts predict that the substantial correction in New York overnight led to the narrow declines in Hong Kong.

Forex News: EUR/USD - Fundamentals & Technicals

The EUR/USD declined by 0.01% at 6:43 GMT on May 15 and traded at 1.3713 and at 6:31 GMT, the pair hit a daily low at 1.3707.

Fundamental view:

The preliminary annualized GDP of the Euro zone probably advanced by 0.4% during the first quarter. This was followed by a 0.2% gain in the previous quarter. In the event of a better-than-expected rise in the region’s economy, the euro will receive support.
The final annualized reading of the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in the Euro zone, perhaps increased by 0.7 % in April.

At 09:00 GMT, the Eurostat is expected to release the official report. Any weaker-than-expected reading may make the ECB to ease monetary policy at their next meeting in June. The ECB may ease the policy to avoid risks of deflation. On the other side,if the data comes out better-than-expected, it will probably dismiss the pressure on central bank’s officials and prevent them from taking imminent actions.

According to the median analyst’ estimate, The cost of living in the US probably increased 2.0% in April compared to the same month a year ago. According to the median forecast by experts, the core CPI moved up by 1.7% in April compared to the previous year,.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release its report at 12:30 GMT in Washington. Any better-than-expected result will certainly influence greenback’s demand. Moreover, the initial jobless claims in the US moved up to 320 000 in the week ended May 10th, compared to that of 319 000 the previous week. In case the initial jobless claims declines more than expected in the data that is expected to be released at 12:30 GMT, it will bring the positive sentiment for the greenback.

Technical view

In the event that EUR/USD figures out to breach the first resistance level at 1.3733, it will most likely proceed up to test 1.3749. On the off chance that the second key resistance is broken, the pair will likely endeavor to move to 1.3766.

In the event that EUR/USD figures out to breach the first key support at 1.3700, it will most likely keep on sliding and test 1.3683. With this second key support broken, the development to the downside will presumably proceed to 1.3667.

Forex outlook: USD/CAD - Fundamental & Technical

Throughout yesterday's trading session, the USD/CAD traded inside the extent of 1.0888 to 1.0926 and consolidated in 1.0906.
On May 14, at 11:54 GMT, the USD/CAD slipped by 0.04% for the day to trade at 1.0900. The pair hit a daily low at 1.0894 at 10:58 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States' annualized record of Poducer Price (PPI) most likely hopped by 1.7% in April, as indicated by the average gauge by experts, after including 1.4% in March.

Country's annualized core PPI, which bars costs of volatile categories, for example, food and energy, presumably stayed steady at 1.4% in April. This indicator is very sensitive to changes in demand. Therefore, it could be utilized as a heading marker for the economy. In any case, due to its controlled extension, it is not suitable for future inflation forecasts.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is projected to distribute the official PPI readings at 12:30 GMT. Higher-than-anticipated readings might help positive sentiment for greenback.

Technical view

On the off chance that USD/CAD figures out to break the first resistance level at 1.0925, it will presumably proceed up to test 1.0945. In the event that the second key resistance is broken, the pair will presumably endeavor to move up to 1.0963.
On the off chance that USD/CAD figures out to breach the first key support at 1.0887, it will presumably keep on sliding and test 1.0869. With this second key support broken, the development to the downside will presumably proceed to 1.0849.

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Forex Outlook: Technical & Fundamental View On USD/MXN

  

USD/MXN traded within the range of 12.9393 to 13.0062 before consolidating at 12.9468 on May 9.
On May 12, at 9:51 GMT, USD/MXN fell down by 0.01% to trade at 12.9460. The pair hit a bottom of a daily low at 12.9424 at 9:42 GMT.

Fundamental view

As per the median forecast by experts, Mexico’s annualized industrial production advanced by 3.7% in April. This was followed by a 0.7% increase in March. The industrial production also advanced by 0.3% last month compared to the previous month. The index indicates the change in the overall inflation-adjusted value of output in sectors like manufacturing, mining and utilities. If the output advanced to a better than expected level, the positive impact will bring a bullish effect on the Mexican peso.

Technical view

If USD/MXN succeeds to breach 12.9884, the first resistance level, it will possibly move up to test 13.0310. If the second key resistance is broken, the pair will possibly strive to move up to 13.0558.
In another case, if USD/MXN heads towards 12.9223 to breach the first key support, it will possibly slide down and test the level of 12.8972. The movement towards the downside will possibly pursue to 12.8551 if the second key support is broken.

Forex Market News - Trading Session Of AUD/JPY Trading Forecast

During the trading session AUD/JPY traded within the range of 95.03-95.39 and closed at 95.36, gaining 0.18% for the day and 0.62% for the week.

Fundamental view

Australia

The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence index probably rose to +7 last month, according to the median analysts’ projection. In March, the index stood at +4.

Japan

The Japanese Current Account surplus probably narrowed to 0.305 trillion yen in March, according to the median analysts’ estimate. In February the nation’s current account surplus stood at 0.613 trillion yen.

Technical Chart:

 AUD/JPY manages to breach the first resistance level at 95.49, it will probably continue up to test 95.62. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 95.85.

If AUD/JPY manages to breach the first key support at 93.45, it will probably continue to slide and test 93.12. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 92.87.

Forex Outlook: Upbeat Asian Currencies, Philippines Peso Leads

Asian currencies are directed for their largest weekly gain from the period of March. More positive results in the Asian region like the Philippines earning an amazing credit-rating upgrade and Malaysia’s ringgit gaining on the expectation of an increase in interest-rate influences the positive sentiment.
 

The Standard & Poor’s elevated the Philippines debt rating to BBB on May 8, augmenting the peso, the Philippines currency, to a five-month high. In the Asian region, reports revealed that China, world’s second largest economy, broadened its trade surplus in April. The Chinese yuan moved up by 0.48 % this week trading at 6.2297 versus the dollar.

Thailand’s baht was poised for a third weekly decline of 0.5 % this week to 32.575 per dollar.
The Taiwan’s dollar climbed up for its second weekly advance on expectations of upbeat export data.  The currency moved up by 0.4 % this week to NT$30.097 against its U.S. counterpart.
 

The Philippines’ peso climbed up by 0.7 % to 43.868 per dollar, making a weekly advance of 1.4 %. Malaysia’s ringgit moved up by 1.1 % this week to 3.2287 and South Korea’s won rose by 0.8 percent to 1,022.40.

In the other regions of Asia, India’s rupee advanced by 0.1 % this week to 60.085 against the dollar. Indonesia’s rupiah slipped down by 0.2 % to 11,545 and the Vietnam’s dong slumped down by 0.1 % to 21,105.

Forex Outlook: Easing Ukranian Crisis, Yen Slips Down

Putin had made a statement that he was drawing out the Russian troops from the Ukrainian border bringing a halt to the mounting Ukraine crisis. With five days to go before the vote on secession, Putin called on pro-Moscow separatists in Ukraine to postpone it.

In an immediate response, the Dollar-denominated Russian shares advanced to a five-week high, with a sigh of relief for the investors.While against the yen, the dollar bought 101.83 yen with a 0.2 % advance to 101.90 on May 7.

With the Ukraine sentiment easing a bit, the safe haven consideration declined, making the yen moved down to trade at 101.82 yen against the dollar. The yen slipped from its three-week high of 101.43 yen versus the dollar on May 7.

The euro stayed flat against the dollar at $1.3913, hovering near the level of the May 6th at $1.3952. Data from analysts in a News survey predict that ECB policy makers shall hold a record-low 0.25 percent rate target.

Forex outlook: Nomra’s Report On China’s Property Burst

Predictions were made by the economists at Nomura about the imminent burst in the China’s property. Further, they predict that the economy could slump down dramatically unless any positive effort through new stimulus measures is taken by Beijing.

A report by bank’s analysts state that the correction in the property market is imminent, and they are convinced that property sector has passed a turning point. Skeptics reveal the real estate sector is characteristic of complications such as hasty credit expansion and policies that stimulate short term growth over a more balanced economy. The building rush gives a better understanding that the property supply overpowers the demand in some parts of the country.

These warnings of a collapse in the property sector had been provided earlier by analysts at the Japan-based broker. Data supporting the bubble burst show that the number of new homes under construction has fallen by 25%,. Moreover, the number of property sales has also dropped radically. 

In addition to that the prices are waning away, particularly in the small and medium cities
If the predictions in the property market slumps down as projected by Nomura, then this will have a more impact on the China's trading partners. In particular, the exporters supplying the raw materials and equipment for construction will have a high impact.

Forex Outlook: A snap View On Forex And Commodity

The currency markets remained subdued with holidays in London and Tokyo, which weakened  the liquidity. The dollar index remained little changed at 79.501, after floating between the range of 79.433 and 79.527 on 5th May 2014.

Against the dollar, the euro moved between $1.3864-$1.3887 range before consolidating at $1.3875, having hugged a tight $1.3864-$1.3887 range. Against the yen, the dollar kept steady at the level of 102.15. The euro was at 141.71 against the yen

The Australian dollar was at 0.9278 against the U.S. dollar and was holding above support at 0.9250. In the commodities sector, the yellow metal, gold was strong at $1,310.71 per ounce, making it a three-week high. The positive sentiment for the metal was derived partly due to the smoldering tensions in Ukraine as gold was considered to be a safe haven among investors.

Another commodity on major focus is the crude oil. The oil prices prolonged their recent decline with the Brent crude for June delivery moving down by 8 cents at $107.64 per barrel. The U.S. crude relieved by 2 cents to stay at $99.46 per barrel.

Forex Market: An Overview Of The Indonesian Economy

Indonesia's economy expanded at a much sluggish pace than expected in the first quarter. This was, in fact, due to the dwindling investments and exports as reported by the statistics bureau on May5. The GDP in the January to March quarter raised by 5.21 % from a year earlier. During the fourth quarter last year, the GDP was at 5.72 %. A recent Reuters poll predicted a GDP level of 5.60 %.

 The Indonesian economy rose up by 0.95 % on a quarterly basis. The economy has been supported by optimistic domestic demand and a strong uptrend in the consumption from the rising middle class.

Indonesia reported a tapered $670 million trade surplus in March on May 2. Owing to a meek decline in imports, while exports squeezed the growth of 1.24 % against a fall the previous month. The annual inflation rate in April lessened further to 7.25 %, as the food prices lowered with the onset of the harvest season.

Forex Outlook: Global Overview Of Forex Market

The U.S dollar stayed almost flat against the yen at 102.35, while against the euro it traded at 1.3859. The euro traded at 141.86 against the yen. The upbeat U.S. consumer spending in March followed by the uptrend manufacturing in April predicts an upbeat U.S economy in the second quarter.

This week, a few of the 31 major currency counterparts of the greenback moved up, including South Africa’s rand and Hungary’s forint moving up by more than 1.3%. 

The euro moved up against the dollar by 0.2%, while the yen lost against the dollar by 0.2%. In another part of the world, Indonesia’s rupiah surged up by 0.2 % to 11,536 per dollar, making a first weekly advance in a month. Data depicts a slowdown in inflation in April and an increase in exports compared to the imports.

The purchasing managers’ index (COMFCOMF) revealed a lower China’s manufacturing data than the expected estimation of analysts. According to data from Mark it Economics in London, the manufacturing sector in U.K gains momentum. The U.K manufacturing sector advanced more than the expected level of economists making an eight month high.

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