Forex News: The Asian Stock Market Slumps Down

The Bank of Japan held its policy steady as predicted. This has brought the upsurge in the Tokyo stocks followed by the strength in yen on 30th April 2014 . Japan's Nikkei stock average wiped out the gains attained in the early trade and slid down by 0.1 %. The BOJ board’s decision to hang on to the steady monetary policy fueled the change.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan moved down by 0.3 %, wiping away the initial gains. However, it is on a monthly rise of above 1 %. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped down by 1.2 % after investors started reaping the gains attained from the late-afternoon sprint on 29th April 2014 . Hang Seng index moved up by 1 % during the final hour of the trade on 29th April 2014.

Forex News: Positive Sentiments On Forex Euro Trading

On April 29, the euro moved up against the dollar. The EUR/USD moved up by 0.11% to 1.3865, very much nearing to the level of 1.3878 hit on April 28. Speculations are on for a support of 1.3820 and a resistance level of 1.3895.

The euro is supported by speculation on the positive consumer price data in the preliminary euro zone inflation report that will be released on April 30. The annual rate of inflation in the euro zone slackened by 0.5% during March, which is the lowest since November 2009. The ECB aims at a below than 2% inflation rate while expecting a near closer level.

Against the yen, the euro moved up by 0.19% to 142.20. The dollar stayed flat against the yen, making a little move up to 102.54 from 102.48 on April 28. With the Japanese market remaining closed on April 29, the trade volumes continued to stay thin.

Forex News: Little Movement In Yen And Aussie

The yen and Aussie are showing some movement worth to watch in the Monday Tokyo open. Both currencies failed to make a much more advance on account of slow activity.After hitting a session high of 0.9292, the AUD/USD consolidated at around 0.9280. Further support was withdrawn due to the late decline in iron ore prices up to almost 5%.

In the Asian session, the USD/JPY opened in a small range. At 5:35 GMT, the USD/JPY pair traded at 102.04, while hitting a session high of 102.23. Both Euro and Pound traded with no large movements in the Asia session. The New Zealand Kiwi traded unbiased and stayed neutral at 0.8575.

Some of the main headlines happening in Asia that will influence the market are the sharp fall in the iron ore prices of almost 5%. The expectations of the Japan Retail Trade on a YoY basis predicting a 11% in March. The International Monetary Fund predicts a growth of 7.5% in the Chinese economy in the year of 2014 and 7.3% in the year of 2015.

Forex News: A brief Outline On Draghi’s Speech

   
The euro fell down against the greenback after the comments by the ECB’s President Mario Draghi. He suggested that the ECB may cut rates, extend fixed-rate allotment, or inject more liquidity. The European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi in a speech in Amsterdam on April 25th stated that the Euro foreign exchange rate is increasingly important for policy and that the rising euro echoes the arrival of confidence.

 In his statement, he said that even though the exchange rate is not targeted for policy making, a rise in the exchange rate with all else being equal denotes a monetary tightening that will have a downward impact on inflation and potentially a threat to the ongoing recovery.

Euro Foreign Exchange Rate: 

Draghi said that although inflation will linger at low level for an extended period, it is expected to slowly mount back to 2 %. The delay is mainly attributed to the damages in the transmission mechanism that lengthen the lag between the accommodative policy stance and price developments.

The ECB has been fighting against the low-inflation and the slow-rise higher in the euro that has augmented the expectation for ECB stimulus. This will evaluate on the euro erstwhile in the future.

EURUSD Daily Chart Chart from EUR/USD Technical Analysis

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Forex Outlook: NZD/CAD Weakens On Canadian Retail Sales

NZD/CAD traded at 0.9484 with a decrease of 0.02% at 9:28 GMT on April 23. At 7:10 GMT, the pair hit its daily low level at 0.9475. On April 22, the NZD/CAD traded to close at 0.9498. Estimates from median analyst reveal that in February, the retail sales increased by 0.5% in Canada. The retail sales in January were at 1.3% increase.

The Canadian retail sales, important component of GDP and the key monthly indicator of consumer purchases, indicates the overall production of the Canadian economy. Retail sales moved up by 0.5% in February excluding autos. This is followed by a 1% increase in the previous month.

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Forex Outlook: A close Watch On The Euro VS US Dollar

 EUR/USD traded at a level of 1.3787 to 1.3830 before consolidating at 1.3792 at the end of the trading session on 21th April . On 22th April , 7:16 GMT, the EUR/USD traded at 1.3801, a 0.06% increase for the day.

Euro zone

As per the median estimate by experts, the euro zone consumer confidence increased to -9.2 in April from that of -9.3 in March 2014.

The preliminary data on consumer confidence will be provided by the European Commission two weeks before the final evaluation and is expected to release the official data at 14:00 GMT on April 22. The euro will see better support if the reading turns out to be higher than expected.

United States

In the United States, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will report on existing home sales in March at 14:00 GMT on April 22. The index of existing home sales slid down by 0.4% to a level of 4.6 million in February when compared to January.

Since the months of March through June are considered to be the active house-purchasing period in the United States, a close watch on the statistical data will provide a signal of weakness or strength in the US housing market.

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EUR/USD Moves Top On Weak US Housing Data

The euro moved up against the greenback breaking away its three day’s decline. Investors speculated a slowdown in the momentum of the US housing sector followed by a lower than expected US housing data. Nevertheless, the euro felt pressure against weaker inflation, adding stress on the ECB to prevent deflation.

EUR/USD moved up to 1.3851 at 08:55 GMT and later stabilized at 1.3834, making an increase of 0.14% for the day. Speculations are on for a support level of 1.3791 and a resistance of 1.3863. In the US, the housing moved up by 0.946 million units in March, which was lower than the expected level of 0.975 million. Moreover, the data showed 0.99 million building permits in March, which was below the expected levels of 1.015 million permits. It should be noted that it was 1.014 million in February.

While in the euro zone, the final inflation rate remained unchanged from the preliminary reading of March 31st, but the core inflation increased to a less than expected level.The ECB will decide on easing the monetary policy further, to bring back price stability and has expressed their willingness to consider new policy measures if required.

Forex News: Upbeat Data On UK Unemployment

Forex News

Reports from UK reveal an improvement in the employment with the unemployment rate of 6.9%, lower than the expected 7.1%. The UK Average Earnings figures have increased which depicts the strength of the employment. 

In March, the Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses increased by 1.4%, up from the level of 1.2% in February. The fall in unemployment signifies the strengthening of the British economy. The Bank of England has informed that it will not focus on unemployment as an objective for making its monetary policy decisions.

 However, Bank of England will not ignore it, if the rate of improvement in the employment situation continues at the pace demonstrated on 16th April 2014. There is also a consensus that the growth is confined to the Southeast area surrounding London, an uneven jobs recovery due to the weaker areas of the remaining part of UK.

The Loonie Gains Before BOC Rate conclusion

The Canadian dollar strengthened on 14th April  with the investors sentiment expecting the rate decision by the Bank of Canada on 16th April 2014.

The positive US retail sales data helped sentiments on the Canadian dollar. Moreover, the stronger data revealing an increase of 1.1% in the US retail revenues in March predicts a better sign for the U.S. economy, which in turn brings a good indication for Canadian exporters.

The Loonie moved up by 13 pips to 0.9124 against the greenback. With the latest data revealing more than expected results on gross domestic product, trade and employment, the Canadian dollar has moved up more than 1.3 % over the last 4 weeks. Investors look forward to the report by Statistics Canada on the consumer price inflation on 17th April.

Expectations about the unchanged benchmark lending rate of 1% by the Bank of Canada remains high. However, the statement about future policy, and upbeat Canadian economy by the policy makers will be closely watched. As per the revised estimates of the International Monetary Fund, the Canadian economy is expected to raise 2.3 % this year 2014.

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US Dollar Weak While Korean Won Climbs

The US dollar held steady at $1.3791 against the euro, after the slip down of 0.4 % on 8th April 2014. Against the yen, the greenback rose 0.1 % to 101.94 following a decrease of 1.3 %. Masato Yanagiya, the head of foreign exchange and money trading in New York at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., a unit of Japan’s second-biggest financial group by market value in a statement mentioned that the dollar is expected to bottom out and the sentiment remains bullish on the U.S. economy.

At the March 18-19 meeting, the U.S. central bank trimmed its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $55 billion. Further, Fed Chair Janet Yellen mentioned the possibility of increase in rate by the central bank.

Investors speculate on today’s release of the reports by the Federal Reserve about the March meeting. The demand for the US dollar was buoyed as the investors consider the time at which hike in the rates will be initiated by the U.S. central bank.

With little change in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, the U.S. currency against its 10 major counterparts, the reading was at 1,008.85. The greenback came down 1.1 % on 8th April three sessions to the lowest level of Oct. 30 at 1,008.53.With the increase of 1 % against the greenback, the won moved up to 1,042.35 after moving to a high of 1,040.46, the maximum since August 2008.

Son Eun Jeong, a Seoul-based foreign-exchange analyst at Woori Futures Co gave a statement that the globally weak dollar and the Korean government refraining from statements about currency appreciation has provided the support for won.

While the Bank of Korea will let the market set exchange rates “in principle,” it will act against temporary, excessive or one-way bets, Governor Lee Ju Yeol said in a prepared response ahead of a parliamentary hearing last month.

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Bank Of England Shake - Foreign Exchange Markets

The Bank of England is considering whether to shake up the foreign exchange team that it maintains for traders and Forex traders at a time when universal probe is ongoing over probable foreign exchange management in the currency markets.

The committee, which is identified as London Foreign Exchange Combined Standing Committee, was established in 1973 and assembles every 2 months. It is mostly composed of senior staff from the main currency-dealing lenders, and representatives from industry associations and BOE.

In latest months, numerous members of the committee’s subgroup, called Chief Dealers’ Subgroup, have either been terminated  as the universal probe into potential benchmark fixing extends.

A source privy to the matter expressed Wall Street Journal that the Bank of England is considering whether to change the arrangement of the FXJSC to incorporate more members from asset management division, which is a main client of banks  foreign exchange services.

Forex Outlook Signal Of EUR/USD Trend Analysis

On its regular Technical Outlook time frame, EUR/USD performs to be testing a resistance turned support zone between the 1.3800 and 1.3700 important technical stages. Trend analysis expressions that this can hold for currently, as the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo pointer is screening a market uptrend.

EUR/USD strength is on track to check its previous highs near the 1.4000 main psychological resistance levels. Take note though that the green line outlooks complete to cross under the price, which is an initial sell signal. So far this hasn't been established by the blue line yet, but the red line also seems to be specifying an end of the uptrend.

By using the Fibonacci retracement tool displays that the pair is stalling around the 50% level, which could hold as support. The next support stages are placed around the orange lines, which are at the 1.3600 to 1.3700 areas.

Annual Check Of New Zealand Economy Dollar Level

The New Zealand dollar is overvalued by between 5% to 15% the International Monetary Fund reckons, but it counsels caution in altering the Reserve Bank Act in the hope of addressing that. Let’s the  terms of trade at a 40-year high the dollar is stronger than would be reliable with stabilizing the country's net foreign obligations over the long track, it said, and on that basis the kiwi looked to be overvalued.

The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, Brian Aitken, placed the overvaluation between 5% to 15%, a variety that reflected the uncertainty complicated in quantifying such things.

 In addition to the strong terms of trade, features contributing to the dollar's strength are the gap between New Zealand and foreign interest rates, the country's favorable evolution outlook and an appetite for what are seen as moderately safe assets.

Commodities Trading Outlook On Copper ,Gold, Silver Futures

 Current trading outlook of  the demand for copper slowing down in lieu to the slump in the economy of the world’s largest consumer, there was some downside on the copper futures seen on 31th March 2014. Adding to the decline was the gold futures, which saw its drop for its first month this year. Interestingly, Silver moved up to the levels of its earliest monthly drop during the start of the year.

Copper futures for settlement in May declined on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange sliding down by 0.46% and was seen trading at 3.028 US dollars per pound.

Helen Lau, a commodity analyst at UOB Kay Hian Ltd. in Hong Kong, stated “Copper has more downside risks,” as cited by Bloomberg. She further expressed her views stating “The slowdown in China will continue with a crash unlikely, which will mean government stimulus will be limited”.
With the staggering economic growth in China, the world’s largest consumer of copper, speculations are on for a drop in prices through June.

The global surplus of copper is estimated by metals researcher CRU to reach a whopping 140 000 tons in 2014. In addition to that the decline in consumption by China will leave a big gap in demand and supply.